opinions about my odds

Ashton
I have Pcos and took femara this past cycle. On day 12 my follicles were at 19 and 19.9. I took the Novarel trigger shot that day  and had intercourse the next 3 days. I went back today and on day 19 my progesterone is 25. I ovulated for the first time in a year. What's my pregnancy probability? 
What does my progesterone need to be at the next blood test? A week is so far away!