Explanation of success odds from a statistician
I've noticed a lot of women confused in how these odds are being calculated on the app for chances of conceiving. This is one thing I'm good at so I thought I might help. (Actually conceiving isn't happening but I can calculate statistics with the best of them!!!)I have a masters degree in statistics (for background on why I'm interpreting).
So here's the deal on these percentages. They've conducted studies where they follow women who are trying to get pregnant; they monitor ovulation and when the women are having sex. Of the women who successfully conceived some had sex every day of their fertile window. Around 25-33% of these women conceived during that cycle. However that doesn't help us with the percentages on any given day! It is impossible to tell which baby dance was the winner.
Some of these women only had sex during one day of their fertile cycle. These are the women who help us actually figure out your chances! So some women only had sex 5 days before ovulation, around 10% of them conceived. Some only had sex 4 days before ovulation, their chances increased from 10% to about 15%, and so on up until the day of ovulation. Your chances keep increasing up until the day of ovulation. After ovulation you're done! Your chances go down to zero again!
So how the hell is the app getting to 7% AFTER you've ovulated? I just told you that your chances are zero after ovulation. It is because the app is only estimating when you ovulated. It is the wiggle room that you didn't actually ovulate when you thought you did. So 7% thinking that they ovulated, didn't, and had a successful baby dance after the fact. Meaning they ovulated and fertilized later than was estimated.
Statistics is fun for the whole family! Baby dust to everyone.
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