Need opinions and possible tmi

So question on the first week of december i put my patch birth control on (desided to give our selves a restart and break from trying to conceive as it was consuming me) well we still had sex while it was on i took it off 4 days later (i understand how bc works) i bled a couple days later for about 5 days stopped bleeding 2 weeks after my ovulation week which was the same week i had the bc on i took a preg test which was neg then started bleeding again dec 24 (when my normal period was suppost to be here) for 4 days meduim flow then i tested again for preg on January 16 it came up neg well i had a test still so i tested again the 19th and it came back positive what are the chances i conceived in dec vs january?? Thank you for reading and giving opinions