What size of diaper?

LO is 11 months and 23Lbs and I have never have problems knowing when to size up, until now. She’s in size 4 but idk if I should go up a size! Technically based on box she’s good until 27 pounds but we have never followed the box guide. I thought it was time to up a size because last week she had 3 blow out, but none this week! 🤷🏻‍♀️ Idk what to do I’ve always followed moms instinct but idk this time.