READ IF YOU'RE WORRIED - Scientist's perspective on some misunderstood stats

I keep seeing people post this reference to a 2008 publication about miscarriage risks. It says 9.4% at 6 weeks... Etc etc. I am attaching a screenshot of the paper's summary. I am a scientist and review studies for a living. This paper is NOT saying what you think it is.

If you stick it out through this explanation you'll feel much better, I promise! I am expecting our rainbow baby after a traumatic miscarriage in February and also have terrible anxiety problems. I feel the pain. I think about whether our little one will make it every second of every day. But I hate seeing these stats all over the place and want to set it straight.

Here's what it SEEMS to say about risk of miscarriage by week:

9.4% at 6 weeks

4.2% at 7 weeks

1.5% at 8 weeks

0.5% at 9 weeks

0.7% at 10 weeks

This is actually the percent of women who had a prenatal visit at 6, 7, etc weeks and THEN went on to have a miscarriage. They did not HAVE a miscarriage at 6 weeks. Reporting on the 6 week statistic. This clinic saw 32 women at 6 weeks gestation. Three of them LATER miscarried at 7, 13, and 18 weeks. 3 of 32 is where that 9.4% came from, but it makes no sense because these women didn't miscarry at 6 weeks. They just coincidentally saw their doctor for the first appointment at 6 weeks.

The entire study sample was 696 women and only 11 of them (1.6%) had a miscarriage. Those 11 miscarriages took place at 7 weeks, two at 10 weeks, three at 11 weeks, two at 13 weeks, one at 18, one at 19, and one at 20 weeks. You can see by reading this that being 6 weeks vs 10 weeks doesn't make a difference, your risk is still low, according to this study.

So in all, this particular paper shows a 1.6% risk of miscarriage. We know based on other research that that is actually sort of low, but I don't want women to misunderstand what this paper says! PLEASE comment if you have questions and I will explain anything you want to know (if I know it!)