Early labor or false labor?

I will be 39 weeks tomorrow. I've been having off and on contractions for the past few weeks that have been painful but extremely tolerable. However since last night around 5 I started to get very painful contractions that were also in my back. They have continued but no consistent pattern or anything other than they typically last 1 to 3 minutes. The only pattern is that they are brought on and get worse the longer I am active. They get to the point where I can barely walk without being in extreme pain. I was 1 cm last Friday. What do you think?