Baby too big? First-time-Pregnancy question for all you experienced mamas:

I have a couple of friends who were both given the option of waiting it out, getting membranes swept, or scheduling to be induced around 39 weeks due to the doctor being concerned about baby’s size. In both cases, the doctors were right...both babies were born between 9.5-10lbs before their due date (both friends passed the screening for gestational diabetes).

My question: how do doctors know whether baby is going to be big without doing a recent ultrasound? I had my last ultrasound at 28 weeks & baby was already measuring over 4lbs at that point, which my OB said was “on the bigger side,” but they didn’t seem too concerned. Now I am 36 weeks & I am concerned that baby is going to be huge if baby has been gaining 1/2 lb per week like they suspect...that would mean he would already be somewhere around 8lbs? I know people give birth to 9-10lb babies all the time & turn out ok, but with my history of multiple vaginal surgeries/issues, I am SO nervous about having a big baby & getting all torn up down there...

So can a doctor estimate how big baby is just by going off the 28 week ultrasound scan & tracking weight or something? I just wasn’t sure how they make that decision...