Can anyone pin point conception date?

I started bbt charting mid-cycle (not realising you’re meant to do it from start of cycle) but ended up getting pregnant anyway. I had an early scan today that estimates me to be about 5+2 or 3.

We didn’t BD much second part of January as I’ve had some on/off pain from an ovarian cyst, looking (loosely - I know it’s not certain!) at the chart, could I potentially have conceived around the 1st Feb?

Any thoughts on this from someone a bit more experienced please ☺️? I just about understand the charting.