NEWBIE to TTC - Please HELP!

Hi ladies! Thanks for your input. I’m new to this TTC thing. I really appreciate it :)

Summary:

July 8th: last period

July 22nd: stopped taking combination BCP at beginning of second week of pack

July 26 - 28/29: a few days of what I assume to be withdrawal bleeding

July 30th - August 4th: LOW fertility on CB advanced

August 5th - 21st: HIGH fertility on CB advanced

August 22nd: PEAK fertility on CB advanced with FMU

I guess my question is, what is the likelihood that this PEAK is real?

I started testing with CB on July 30th because I had no clue when to start testing given that I have no knowledge of how long my cycles are being off the pill.

I got excited when I got the static smiley this morning and double checked using the cheap ovulation strips with my second morning urine....those were definitely negative though!

What gives?!

Thank you from a newbie!