Silent labor or start of labor???

FTM 40+3, I’ve been having non-painful contractions last hour and a half. They’re consistent about 4-7 minutes apart for a minute long, best I can describe is them being slightly uncomfortable and my lower back having a dull ache. I’ve been drinking water and laid down timing them. Even switching sides I’m laying on. I usually get these consistent contractions for an hour before they go away, and last time I called L&D they said to call to come in when I can barely talk through contractions, bleeding, or my water breaks.

I almost went into early labor at 36 weeks & had to stay overnight because I had actual consistent contractions but hadn’t had any pain complaints about it. I was also 2.5 cm dilated at 36wks but declined any other cervix checks at my appointments after. So I’m not sure where I’m at now.

So is this the start of labor possibly? At this point I feel like I’ll only know to go in if I’m bleeding or my water breaks. 😅😅