I feel dumb and can't tell if I'm in early labor or not.

39 weeks 3 days today. Yesterday I got my membranes stripped. I was crampy all day and when I tried to go to bed was experiencing some serious lower back pain & cramps. I'm assuming they were contractions. They were coming pretty frequently. I started to time them but they weren't getting closer together. Five hours later, the pain got better and I finally was able to fall asleep. This morning I was okay but come noon, I was starting to get the same back pain/cramping combo. A couple hours later, I went to the bathroom and lost what looked like my mucus plug. This is my first baby and I just have no idea what to expect. I am still getting what I think are contractions and have been timing them. I just want to know, how bad do they have to get before I go to the hospital? Do they have to be unbearable? They feel like really awful period cramps right now.