What would you say my chances of conceiving are based on this info?

We had sex on the very late night of July 2nd.

As you can see, I got the positive OPK on the morning of July 2nd but I’m thinking had I tested the evening of July 1st, that I might have gotten a positive then as well.

When would you say, best guess, as to when the egg was released and if I have a good chance at conceiving?

I have my thoughts about it, just curious what others think.

Thanks so much!