November 9th Baby 1st Birthday Theme?

So fall/winter are insanely busy for our families, and with so much happening I try to prep 4-6 months in advance to balance costs. Hubby and I have narrowed down the party themes to the above choices. Because my youngest will be 1 on 11/9, we feel obligated to go the more fall-appropriate theme, but really, really love the winter-related theme better. With her being born before Thanksgiving, it's hard to justify a Christmas-related theme. 😅 We are doing a cakesmash, as well, and want to match the cakesmash photos to match the party theme. Normally my hubby is not so enthusiastic about party decisions which makes this even more challenging as he is very interested with the winter theme! Photos of our intended theme invites below. Once we choose the theme, then we will choose our menu and what decor I can make, as well.