Chances of conceiving based on this info?!

What would you say my chances of conceiving are based on this info?

We had sex on the very late night of July 2nd.

As you can see, I got the positive OPK on the morning of July 2nd but I’m thinking had I tested the evening of July 1st, that I might have gotten a positive then as well.

When would you say, best guess, as to when the egg was released and if I have a good chance at conceiving?

I have my thoughts about it, just curious what others think.

Thanks so much!

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