Chances? Anyone get a BFN 10dpo then a BFP?

I took a test this morning, because I thought I was 12dpo and with my first 2 kids, I always got a fairly strong BFP 12dpo. But, this time around, I'm not sure if I ovulated later (I dont use tests but I get in a ton of pain during ovulation, and the pain last until the 6th, not the 4th (my peak day according to glow) like it usually does). So instead of the 4th, I might have ovulated the 6th. In which case I'm only 10dpo, not 12dpo. I got a BFN this morning. Has anyone gotten a BFP after a BFN at 10dpo? Here is my chart too...what do you think my chances are? Some days we BD twice.