What are the chances?

So I did a stupid thing. I am off birth control because my yearly pap was delayed (I moved, etc). No doctor would refill the prescription without that being done. I have my appointment today. Unfortunately, I had unprotected sex almost two weeks ago. It was a caught up in the moment, stupid thing to do. Now I am four days late for my period. What are the chances I'm actually pregnant? I've had cramping (a lot in my back) but thats about it. Is it possible it is just because I was off the birth control for a month? I have also been walking more trying to lose weight. I lost about 7lbs in a little over a month. I'm trying not to spiral. What do y'all think?