What’s the chances?!

On the MINI PILL-still ovulate with Norethindrone, didn’t take it 12/31, 1/1. Had sex 1/2. Took it for 3 days, didn’t take it 1/5 and had sex that night and haven’t taken it since. Per calendar, ovulation week was 1/2-1/8 and I know I was ovulating around 1/4-1/6 for sure because of my discharge. With both my girls, I got pregnant each time I got that blinking smiley. I didn’t take an ovulation test this time but I know 1/5, my discharge matched the discharge I had when I got pregnant in 7/21 when I got that blinking smiley.